Do I DCA ?

Bitcoin Cycle Indicator

Signal from 0 (top) to 100 (bottom) based on 29 macro, market, sentiment, on-chain, microstructure, and exogenous indicators.

Cycle Signal
—
29/29 indicators available
DCA Advisor
67
100Convergence: +3
Moderate DCA to consider7-day avg (7 snapshots)
Top (0)Bottom (100)

Notable bottom signals building. Moderate-to-high probability of favorable zone.

Macro58
Market72
Sentiment71
On-chain71
Micro46
Exogenous44

Last updated: 2026-06-05 03:54

DCA Advisor
Backtest Performance
134 months tested (Jan 2015 – Feb 2026) across all market phases.
View Chart

16

Avg top

87%

Accuracy

74

Avg bottom

Current vs historical scores

67
Top
Bottom
Historical tops
Historical bottoms

Confirmed Bottoms

Jan 2015 $17064
Dec 2018 $3,10069
Mar 2020 $3,80072
Jun 2022 $17,60087
Nov 2022 $15,50078

Confirmed Tops

Dec 2017 $19,8008
Apr 2021 $64,80017
Nov 2021 $69,00022
Oct 2025 $126,00018

Backtest is in-sample (retrospective). Not all indicators were available for historical dates. Past performance does not predict future results.

MacroWeight: 25%

58/100

Measures global central bank liquidity available for markets

Low: Contraction, hostile environment → BTC suffers

High: Expansion, favorable liquidity → accumulation zone

45-0.27% (Global)
Low: -6.62%Avg: 0.03%High: 7.61%
Reliability
Weekly

Liquidity cycle phase — direction and position of the 3-month rate of change

Low: RoC falling, prolonged deceleration → caution

High: RoC at trough and rising, BTC hasn't reacted → buy zone

32↘ -0.29%
Low: -8.00%Avg: 0.01%High: 12.5%
Reliability
Weekly

US manufacturing output — proxy for economic health

Low: Sustained expansion → near top

High: Contraction + reversal signals → contrarian bottom

55CLI 98.91
Low: 96.2CLIAvg: 99.8CLIHigh: 103CLI
Reliability
Monthly

A Chinese credit peak precedes a BTC rise by ~3 months

Low: No credit impulse → no bullish catalyst

High: Recent peak + BTC hasn't reacted yet → probable bottom

894.0% YoY ↘ Peak detected
Low: -50.4ppAvg: -0.06ppHigh: 42.9pp
Reliability
Monthly

Dollar strength — a weak dollar favors risk assets

Low: Strong dollar, flight to safety → top zone

High: Weak dollar, capital flows to risk assets → bottom zone

58118.9
Low: 117Avg: 120High: 127
Reliability
Daily

Fed monetary policy — direct lever on liquidity

Low: Tightening cycle (rate hikes / QT) → hostile environment

High: Easing cycle (rate cuts / QE) → bottom

563.63% ↘0.25
Low: 0.05%Avg: 1.81%High: 5.33%
Reliability
~6 weeks

US unemployment rate — influences Fed decisions

Low: Slight rise without Fed reaction → no monetary support

High: Sharp unemployment rise, forces the Fed to act → contrarian bottom

514.3%
Low: 3.40%Avg: 5.71%High: 14.8%
Reliability
Monthly